Super Bowl LVIII – Mahomes vs Purdy
One of the most compelling storylines heading into the Super Bowl on Sunday, February 11th is the huge contrast between the Kansas City Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes and San Francisco 49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy. It’s like fine wine versus a trendy new IPA. A Porsche 911 vs Tesla. Reba vs Taylor, maybe. However you want to compare them, Mahomes and Purdy are both worthy of leading their teams into the Super Bowl.
How do they really match up? Let’s dive in, and along the way we’ll also break down some of dozens of the bets that Bovada Sportsbook has for you heading into Super Sunday.
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Mahomes has simply put together the best football bio of any quarterback under 30 in the history of the NFL.
He’s 28 years old has been to the Super Bowl 4 times already, all with the Kansas City Chiefs. He has 17 playoff games under his belt, more than most QBs have in their entire career. Mahomes is 14-3 in those games, including a red-hot start last week that saw him complete 11 passes to start the game against the Baltimore Ravens.
This season, Mahomes struggled with a less-than-stellar receiving corps. The Chiefs led the league in dropped passes. His go-to since he arrived in the NFL, tight end Travis Kelce, had his worst season in years. And yet – there is no other QB in the NFL that anyone wants to lead them in a big game than Patrick Lavon Mahomes II.
His physical attributes are one thing – a cannon of an arm that can unleash throws from any angle in any situation, and serious wheels to get him out of a jam for a big gain. But it’s Mahomes’ head that deserves equal attention. He makes a great decision almost every time, with minimal mistakes. He did throw for a career-high 14 INTs this season, but in his 17 playoffs games – a full season in itself – he has thrown only 6 picks.
The title of Mr. Irrelevant is one we’ve all heard by now. It is given to the last player selected in the NFL Draft each year, and Brock Purdy made it more famous as he lit up the NFL when he entered the action in Week 13 of the 2022 season for the San Francisco 49ers.
As the 262nd overall pick earlier that year (in comparison, Mahomes in 2018 was the 10th player picked), Purdy won his first 10 games and is now leading the Niners straight into the Super Bowl in his first full season. He is now Mr. Relevant.
His strong points are not always obvious on the stat sheet, although he did have 5 games with 300+ yards passing this season. He led the NFL with 9.6 yards per pass attempt, and he had 31 TDs to Mahomes’ 27 in 2023.
The sneaky stat that took many by surprise recently? Purdy’s running, which he’s never needed to do that often (having Christian McCaffrey with you in the backfield helps). In the NFC Conference Championship game, he extended drives and deflated the Detroit Lions’ defense with clutch scrambles totaling 48 yards, helping lead San Francisco to victory.
It’s this decision-making and composure that his teammates talk about. Purdy seems eerily calm under pressure, especially for his relative inexperience. This could serve him well in biggest game of the year on the sports calendar, Super Bowl 58.
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MAHOMES vs PURDY – BETTING ODDS AND PROPS
While you contemplate the differences between the Super Bowl quarterbacks, Bovada’s NFL experts have created a great lineup of Super Bowl wagers for you to make it even more fun. You can find over 40 specific quarterback prop bets alone.
Who will win the Super Bowl MVP?
The odds are always in the quarterbacks’ favor, as a QB has won 54% of the Super Bowl MVP awards overall.
Patrick Mahomes (+120) is the overall favorite to take home the Super Bowl MVP award as the game’s most valuable player. Brock Purdy is next up at +225. Clearly the oddsmakers value Mahomes’ experience over the 49ers’ offensive firepower.
Who will have more yards passing?
Mahomes is the favorite at -160, while Purdy comes in at +120. This is despite Purdy’s slight edge in the regular season, throwing for 4,280 to Mahomes’ 4,183. Again, the young Super Bowl vet gets the nod here.
For both QBs, you can pick your yardage odds from a range of choices in the prop section at Bovada. Brock’s odds run from -775 to throw for under 185.5 yards, all the way to +775 for going over 310.5 total passing yards.
Mahomes is in a similar range. If you want to play it safe and go mid-range with the Chiefs’ star QB, his O/U for total passing yards of 260.5 is set at -115.
Total Passing Attempts
Oddsmakers seem to think this game will be a shoot-out. Purdy’s O/U is 31.5 pass attempts, while Mahomes’ is at 36.5. If you think either team has the edge and can open up a big lead early, it can be a sneaky strategy to go with the team you think might lose – they’ll need to air it out often in the 2nd half just to catch up.
If you are feeling frisky for Frisco, Purdy is a cool +1200 to throw for 4 touchdowns or more. With George Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, and even CMC coming off a screen pass, throwing for four TDs is within Purdy’s reach. Taking it down a notch, he’s at +350 to throw for 3 or more.
By contrast, if you’re a more precise type of bettor, Patrick Mahomes is at +1300 to throw for exactly 4 TDs, and +425 to toss for exactly 3 tuddys.
Non-QB Pass Attempts
Finally, it wouldn’t be a Super Bowl if there wasn’t some trickery afoot. Chiefs’ coach Andy Reid likes to throw in some trick plays and Niners coach Kyle Shanahan is no stranger to them either.
With that in mind, you can wager on which player not named Mahomes or Purdy might make a pass attempt. 49ers receiver Deebo Samuel, often in motion in the backfield, is the likeliest candidate at +1000. He’s followed by another Niner, McCaffrey, at +1100.
Next up is the Chiefs TE Travis Kelce, himself a former QB in high school and even in college. Oddsmakers have him at +1400 to give Mahomes a break from throwing on at least one play.
Whether you like the Chiefs’ experienced Super Bowl quarterback Patrick Mahomes or the 49ers’ youthful star QB Brock Purdy, it’s going to be a great matchup either way.