NFL Week 2 Betting Insights
As the dust settles from a scintillating Week 1 of NFL action, football fans and bettors alike find themselves catching their breath after a rollercoaster of emotions. The 2023 NFL season burst onto the scene with a week that could only be described as electrifying. From jaw-dropping highlights to nail-biting finishes, the opening weekend had it all and then some, leaving us hungry for more as we dive headfirst into Week 2!
For the NFL betting community, last week served as a tantalizing appetizer, offering a glimpse into the potential riches that lie ahead. Now, armed with insights from the opening week and a deeper understanding of each team’s strengths and weaknesses, it’s time to navigate the complex world of NFL betting once again.
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In this article from Bovada Sportsbook, we’ll break down some of the key storylines, emerging trends and valuable insights that will shape your NFL betting decisions in Week 2 and beyond. From injury updates to betting strategies, we’ve got you covered on the path to NFL betting success!
There were a number of surprising blowouts during the NFL’s opening week of the season, including double-digit losses by the Bengals, Steelers, Seahawks and Giants. People tend to overreact to these outcomes early on in the season and this can lead to some inflated betting lines the following week. Want proof? Since 2014, NFL teams that lost by 10+ points in Week 1 have gone 39-22-1 against the spread (ATS) in Week 2.
Despite looking terrible in Week 1, the Bengals, Steelers, Seahawks and Giants all have quality rosters and legitimate playoff aspirations. You can be sure these four teams will be looking to get back on track and should put forth a much better effort in Week 2. This exact scenario came about last year with six different teams getting blown in their season opener, only for those squads to go an impressive 5-1 ATS the following week. Take advantage of this betting trend and bet on last week’s losers to bounce back in a big way in Week 2.
During the early stages of the NFL season, it’s not uncommon to witness the scales of power tipping in favor of the defense. While offenses are still finding their rhythm, developing chemistry and adapting to new schemes, defenses often have the upper hand. This phenomenon isn’t surprising, as it takes time for quarterbacks to establish rapport with their receivers, offensive lines to build cohesion, and play-callers to fine-tune their strategies.
The good news is that this can make betting the under an effective strategy, since the early weeks of an NFL season tend to yield lower-scoring games. Just look at the final scores from Week 1, as a staggering 75% of the games stayed below the total. This betting trend is obviously temporary, with offenses gradually finding their groove as they season goes on, so you may want to take advantage of this tendency while you still can!
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Prime Time Predicament
All eyes will be on QB Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota Vikings this Thursday night as they travel to Philadelphia for a prime time matchup with the Eagles. The Vikings had a very disappointing debut last Sunday, falling 20-17 to the Buccaneers. Minnesota is currently listed as a seven-point underdog at Bovada Sportsbook, but that may not be enough to overcome their quarterback’s dreadful record in prime time games.
While he may be an effective passer with over 4,000 passing yards in 7 of the past 8 seasons, Kirk Cousins has a history of crumbling when the spotlight is at its brightest. Over the course of this NFL career, Cousins is just 1-9 straight up (SU) when playing in prime time games. Playing the Eagles in the hostile confines of Lincoln Financial Field is never easy, but this alarming prime time trend makes it even tougher. With football fans across the country tuning in for this Thursday night matchup, you may want to consider fading Cousins and the Vikings.
Buy Low, Win Big
Buying low on good teams is always an effective betting strategy. Ideally, you want to identify teams that underwent drastic changes in perception following their opening game. More specifically, fading Week 2 favorites that were underdogs in their previous game.
This scenario has come about 125 times since 2005, with the favorites going just 48-71-6 ATS over that time. Heading into Week 2 of the 2023 NFL Season, there are six different teams who fit the criteria outlined above. Historically speaking, fading the favorites shown below and backing the underdogs should be an effective betting strategy and lead to a profitable second week of the season.
- Detroit Lions (-5.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) vs. Chicago Bears
- Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at New England Patriots
- Green Bay Packers (-1) at Atlanta Falcons
- New York Giants (-5.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Vrabel to Victory
After losing a nail-biter on the road to the Saints, the Titans have returned home to Tennessee and are preparing for a Week 2 tilt with the Los Angeles Chargers. The Titans defense looked good on Sunday and they’ll need that to continue with this week’s matchup versus Los Angeles’ potent aerial attack. If you’re looking for a reason to bet on Tennessee, look no further than Titans head coach Mike Vrabel.
The former Patriots linebacker has been head coach of the Titans since 2018. In that time, his teams have gone an efficient 25-15 ATS. Tennessee will enjoy a much easier matchup on offense compared to last week, which should allow for better results from QB Ryan Tannehill and RB Derrick Henry. The Titans are currently a +3.5 home underdog at Bovada Sportsbook, making them an appealing option to cover. Lock in your bets now before the spread begins to dip and roll with coach Vrabel and the Titans in Week 2!