NFL Week 10 Betting Insights
We have officially reached the halfway mark of the NFL’s regular season, with nine weeks of exciting football action behind us and another nine weeks still to go. Taking a look at the Week 10 schedule, NFL fans are in store for another great slate of hard-hitting, action-packed football. As always, you can find the complete betting odds on every NFL game at Bovada Sportsbook.
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In case you haven’t been following along this betting season, there’s been a number of surprising developments around the league. Early Super Bowl contenders like the Buffalo Bills and San Francisco 49ers have struggled as of late, while longtime losers like the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars are currently tied at 6-2 for the best record against the spread (ATS) in the NFL
In this weekly NFL betting preview, we’ll walk you through some key insights and cover the telling trends that will help you win big this Sunday. With several great matchups to bet on and a number of developing storylines, you can never be too prepared when it comes to betting on NFL football!
Poke the Bear
With the Bears and the Panthers facing off in this week’s edition of Thursday Night Football, the big question is who will start at quarterback for Chicago. Justin Fields continues to work his way back from a thumb injury but his throwing ability is still in question. The other option is rookie Tyson Bagent, but he’s coming off an ugly three-interception performance last week versus New Orleans.
Despite this glaring issue at quarterback, NFL odds makers have the 2-7 Bears currently listed as a 3.5-point betting favorite over the 1-7 Panthers. If it feels odd to see Chicago giving up so many points, there’s a reason for that: The Bears haven’t been favored by more than three points since 2021. In fact, Chicago has gone just 1-15 straight up (SU) in their last 15 conference games. Until they get things sorted out at quarterback, it’s difficult to trust the Bears when they’re giving up more than a field goal – even against a terrible team like the Panthers.
Fading the Public
It was an excellent start to the NFL betting season for the public, with most football fans able to cash in on the first portion of the schedule. The betting public started off with an incredible 13-3 mark in Week 1 and maintained a positive winning percentage over the season’s opening month, but things are slowly beginning to shift back in the other direction. Last week was particularly rough, with the public posting a season low 3-9 record ATS.
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Looking at the NFL’s Week 10 betting market, we can see that there are already a few games with one side getting an overwhelming amount of the money bet. The Cincinnati Bengals are 7-point betting favorites over the Houston Texans and the Dallas Cowboys are an eye-popping 15.5-point betting favorites over the New York Giants, yet both teams are getting more than 85% of all the money bet against the spread on these 2 games.
The Detroit Lions have an even bigger target on their back, as the NFC North leaders are seeing a staggering 95% of the early ATS money as 1.5-point betting favorites over the Los Angeles Chargers. As tempting as it may be to bet on these publicly-back teams, you may want to consider fading the public and bank on the odds of probability bringing their betting record back to the norm.
Seahawks Take Flight
You may not be inclined to bet on the Seahawks after watching them get completely annihilated by the Ravens last Sunday, but don’t let one bad outing alter your overall opinion of Seattle. This is an extremely athletic football team with talent throughout the roster. With the Seahawks returning home as 6.5-point betting favorites over the Commanders in Week 10, this could be the perfect ‘get-right’ game for Pete Carroll’s players in Seattle.
One of the key things to keep in mind for this matchup is that the Commanders will be missing the teeth of their defense, with pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat both jettisoned ahead of the NFL trade deadline. Combine that with the fact that the Seahawks added defensive end Leonard Williams to their front line and the Seahawks suddenly have a major advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball in this matchup.
According to DVOA, Washington has the worst defense in the NFL over the past four weeks. The Seahawks, on the other hand, rank in the top 10 overall and the top 15 in all three phases on defense. Seattle’s loss to the Ravens last week was ugly, but it should be pointed out that Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has a 62% ATS win percentage coming off a loss.
‘Under’ Review
Boasting one of the most intimidating defensive units in the National Football League, the Pittsburgh Steelers have relied on their grit and toughness to earn a 5-3 record at the halfway point of the season. While it’s clear that Pittsburgh still has a number of things to sort out on the offensive side of the ball, the defense has kept the Steelers in every game and owns one of the league’s best turnover differential at +8.
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Pittsburgh will play host to Green Bay in Week 10, with the Packers still looking to find its way with first-year starter Jordan Love under center. Green Bay’s offense has struggled this season, and while they’re coming off a win, it’s far less impressive when you realize it came against a Rams team with Brett Rypien as their starting quarterback. The Packers has failed to score more than 20 points in each of their past 6 games and now go up against the Steelers’ vaunted defense. With the game total currently set at 38.5, you’d be wise to lock in the under now before that number starts dropping.