NFL Conference Championships Betting Insights & Tips
With only four teams left standing in this year’s NFL Playoffs, it’s time to do some betting research and prepare for this weekend’s conference championship games. In the AFC, it’ll be Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs hosting Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals, while in the NFC, Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles welcome Brock Purdy and the San Francisco 49ers.
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With the outcome of this weekend’s AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games determining this year’s Super Bowl matchup, you can bet there’ll be a lot of football fans tuning in to see the action unfold on the field. If you don’t feel like waiting until Sunday, you can always jump ahead by betting on one of the four remaining teams to win the 2023 Super Bowl. You can find the Super Bowl betting odds for all four teams at Bovada Sportsbook.
If you’re looking to cash in on conference championship weekend, Bovada Sportsbook’s got you covered with the complete NFL betting odds on both the AFC and NFC Championship Games. In the AFC, the Chiefs opened as slight betting favorites over the Bengals, but those odds quickly shifted and Cincinnati is now listed as a 2-point favorite. The Eagles are the team to beat in the NFC and are currently listed as 2.5-point betting favorites over San Francisco. Now let’s take a closer look at both of these playoff matchups and discuss some of the more interesting betting insights leading up to the games.
AFC #1 – Mahomes Dealing With High Ankle Sprain
We can’t talk about this year’s AFC Championship Game without discussing the status of Kansas City’s All-Pro quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. The prolific passer suffered a high ankle sprain in the first half of the Chiefs’ Divisional Round win over the Jaguars and, despite playing in the second half, it’s clear that he’s feeling the effects of this injury. Mahomes has already come out and stated that he’ll be playing in this weekend’s game versus Cincinnati, but a high ankle sprain is a difficult injury to play through and his status for Sunday is still in doubt. Even if he does play, Mahomes’ mobility will be severely affected, so keep this in mind if you’re planning to bet on Kansas City.
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AFC #2 – Reid Out For Revenge
When it’s all said and done, Andy Reid will go down as one of the greatest head coaches in NFL history. The Kansas City bench boss has had an impressive coaching career and is especially skilled when it comes to facing a team for a second time in the same season. In this scenario, Reid has an incredible record of 31-10 straight up (SU) and 24-16-1 against the spread (ATS). This just happens to be the case in this year’s AFC Championship Game, with the Chiefs and Bengals having already faced off in Week 13. Cincinnati was victorious in that one, winning 27-24 in an epic regular season matchup. That outcome is particularly worth noting since coach Reid is just 8-7 SU and 8-6-1 ATS in the second game when losing the first matchup.
AFC #3 – Kelce Can’t Be Stopped
If you prefer wagering on player props instead of betting on the game’s final score, you should think about placing a bet on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce. As the best tight end in football over the past several years, Kelce seems to be at his very best during the NFL Playoffs. In 16 career playoff games, he’s put up an astounding 120 receptions, 1,389 yards and 14 touchdowns. Kelce has played in seven playoff games over the past three season and surpassed his total yards prop each and every time. With his total for the AFC Championship game set at a modest 76.5 yards, you can feel confident betting on Kelce to accomplish this feat yet again.
NFC #1 – Defense Wins Championships
Looking at the two teams in this year’s NFC Championship Game, the old adage of “defense wins championships” has never been truer. While the Eagles and 49ers have capable offenses that know how to put points on the board, both of these teams are led by dominant defensive units. Philadelphia gave up just 20.2 PPG during the regular season, but San Francisco has the edge with the NFL’s top scoring defense, allowing just 16.3 PPG. This is worth noting since NFL teams that gave up fewer PPG during the regular season have gone 15-10 SU and 17-8 ATS in conference championship games since 2010. When you consider this trend, along with San Francisco’s incredibly talented defense, you can see why 49ers fans are so confident heading into the NFC Championship Game.
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NFC #2 – There’s No Place Like Home
From the support of the fans to the lack of travel, there’s no denying that playing at home provides a clear advantage. As the NFC’s No. 1 seed, the Eagles will benefit from playing at home on Lincoln Financial Field. Looking back over the past nine NFL seasons, home teams have gone an impressive 14-4 SU and 12-6 ATS in the conference championship game. With the matchup taking place in Philadelphia in January, you can also expect some chilly temperatures on game day. This plays right into the Eagles hands as they welcome a 49ers squad more accustomed to the warm weather of the Bay area.
NFC #3 – Pick The Points
With most of the talk leading up to the NFC Championship game focused on defense, it can be easy to forget how good both of these offenses have been as of late. The Eagles ranked 3rd in points during the regular season at 28.1 PPG, while the 49ers were not far behind at 26.5 PPG. Looking back at the NFC Championship Game results in recent years, the over has gone 14-5-2 since 2002. The numbers get even better if we shorten that timeframe to the past 8 seasons, with the over hitting in 6 of 8 NFC Championship Games. Despite the presence of two great defenses, don’t be surprised if these two teams find a way to put up some points on Sunday. With the total for this game currently set at 46, you should think about betting on the over and cheering on these two underrated offenses.
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