Eli Berkovits’ Week 3 Locks
Written by: Eli Berkovits
Eli is an NFL fanatic, with fantastic knowledge surrounding the sport. Be sure to follow Eli on X (@BookOfEli_NFL).
After a wild Week 2, it’s time to turn our attention to Week 3 and key in on our favorite bets of the week. This week features plenty of exciting matchups between some high-flying offenses as well as some games that should be defensive battles to the end. We will also get two more Monday night games that should turn out much better than last week’s Monday night doubleheader.
It’s time to get to my locks of the week, starting with my favorite matchup of the entire weekend.
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Minnesota Vikings vs Los Angeles Chargers – Over 54
There is so much offensive firepower in this game it’s making my head spin. Both teams feature pass-happy offenses with quarterbacks who can sling it all over the field. I can’t imagine what these defensive coordinators are going through right now trying to plan for guys like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, TJ Hockenson, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams. I didn’t even mention the fact that Austin Ekeler could return for this game which would only add to the intrigue.
While we’re only two weeks into the season, the Chargers have gone over in both games thus far, while the Vikings just scored 28 in a shootout against the Eagles. Both of these defenses have struggled to start the season, with LA allowing the 3rd most points and Minnesota allowing the 8th most. This will not be the “get right” week for either defense.
I understand that 54 is a big number but these are two of the most explosive offenses in the NFL and both enter this game at 0-2, desperate for a win. I expect both coaching staffs to go all out in this one trying to ensure a win for their respective team.
Detroit Lions -3 vs Atlanta Falcons
Everyone’s favorite offseason pick to take over the NFC was the Detroit Lions – crazy times. But, through two weeks, the Lions have looked very impressive with a road win over the Chiefs on opening night and an overtime loss to the Seahawks, where they put up 31 points. On the other side, you have the Falcons who sit at 2-0 but haven’t exactly played dominant football through two games. They beat Bryce Young in his first career start and then had to erase a 12-point 4th quarter deficit to beat the Packers in Week 2.
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While the Lions may not be considered elite just yet, when they are at home in the confines of Ford Field, they are a different animal. Since the beginning of 2022, the Lions have scored an average of 32.9 points while playing at home. That is astronomical. Meanwhile, the Falcons have averaged only 17.6 points per game on the road in the same time period. I don’t see this being a major blowout, but the Lions will simply put up too many points for the run-heavy Falcons to keep up with.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Philadelphia Eagles – Over 46
We’re waiting until Monday night for our final lock of the week, and this may be the one I’m most confident in. To the surprise of no one, the Eagles offense has looked like a well-oiled machine through two games scoring 59 points (5th most in NFL). But what has been a surprise is how good Baker Mayfield has looked leading the Buccaneers offense. They aren’t blowing the doors off anyone, but Baker is playing mistake-free football and consistently getting the rock to star wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Speaking of star wideouts, there may not be a better wide receiver duo in the league than AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. Through two games, they have combined for 22 receptions, 296 yards, and 2 touchdowns and I expect them to continue that success on Monday night. The Eagles are a good team no matter where they play, but for some reason, their offense is even better on the road. Last season, they averaged 30 points per game on the road and “only” 28.3 at home.
We know the Eagles will do their part and I’m more than confident that the Bucs will be able to move the ball and put up points against a depleted Eagles secondary.
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