Thiago Santos will be looking to become the first-ever fighter to defeat Jon Jones in a UFC title fight when he takes on the UFC light heavyweight champion on Saturday in the main event at UFC 239 as a heavy +475 underdog on the UFC odds.
The 35-year-old Brazilian earned his first career shot at a UFC title after posting four straight victories, capped by a third-round TKO victory over Jan Blachowicz at UFC Fight Night 145 as a -135 wager. That improved his professional MMA record to 21-6 going into Saturday night’s matchup at T-Mobile Arena.
Santos has finished opponents with regularity of late, claiming victory by KO or TKO in seven of his past eight wins, with just two of those contests extending into the third round.
Santos has also taken home bonuses in each of his past three fights, with Performance of the Night bonuses in his victories over Blachowich and Jimi Manuwa, whom he finished with a second-round KO at UFC 231 as -200 chalk, and Fight of the Night honors with his third-round TKO win over Eryk Anders in his light heavyweight debut at UFC Fight Night 137.
Undefeated in his past 16 trips to the octagon, Jones is set as a heavy -750 favorite on the UFC 239 odds. Jones has been dominant since his return to the octagon at UFC 232, where he reclaimed his UFC light heavyweight crown with a third-round TKO win as a -310 favorite in a highly anticipated rematch with Alexander Gustafsson.
Jones originally won the UFC light heavyweight title back in 2011, and successfully defended the belt on a record eight occasions before being stripped of his crown in 2015.
Jones followed up with a unanimous decision win over Ovince Saint-Preux as a -600 wager at UFC 197 to claim the interim light heavyweight title, and knocked out Daniel Cormier in the third round of their clash at UFC 214 in another title fight. However, on both occasions, the 31-year-old was stripped of the belt due to failed drug tests.
A power puncher and submission specialist early in his career, Jones has regularly gone the distance in recent fights, with five of his past seven clashes going a full five rounds. That experience may provide the champion with an edge over Santos, who has never seen a fight last into the championship rounds, and has had just one of his past 12 fights decided by the judges.
Nunes Favored on Saturday UFC Betting Lines
Elsewhere in UFC 239 betting, Amanda Nunes will be aiming to successfully defend her UFC women’s bantamweight title for a fourth time when she takes on Holly Holm as a strong -380 favorite.
Nunes is coming off a stunning opening-round knockout of Cris Cyborg at UFC 232 to win the UFC women’s featherweight title and reward bettors as a +160 underdog. With the win, Nunes became the first women to hold multiple UFC championships simultaneously, while also extending her overall win streak to eight fights.
Holm makes her return to the octagon following a 13-month absence lagging as a +290 underdog. “The Preacher’s Daughter” has struggled to maintain the success that earned her wins in her first three UFC contests, including her surprising second-round KO win over Ronda Rousey at UFC 193 as a +525 underdog that briefly lifted her to the top of the UFC women’s bantamweight division.
The 37-year-old has lost four of six fight since, but earned the decision in a three-round clash with Megan Anderson in her featherweight debut at UFC 225, paying out on -185 odds in UFC betting.
Earlier in the evening, former UFC middleweight champion Luke Rockhold sits as -235 chalk as he makes his light heavyweight debut against Blachowicz, who lags at +185. As well, Ben Askren is set as a -225 favorite in his second UFC appearance, battling veteran Jorge Masvidal, who trails with +175 odds.
* Bovada Odds as of July 4