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Brady Still Holds Edge on NFL MVP Odds

Brady Still Holds Edge on NFL MVP Odds - Bovada Sportsbook

While the New England Patriots have already clinched the AFC East and with a Week 17 win over the Jets would lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed, Tom Brady has looked far from elite over the past month. Despite the slump, the 40-year-old quarterback remains the favorite to win the 2017 NFL MVP with odds at -300 heading into the final week of the regular season.

Through the first 11 games of the season, Brady completed 68.4% of his passes and averaged 306.7 pass yards per game with 26 touchdowns and only three interceptions. In the past four games, he’s completed 64.7%, but watched his per game average dip to 253.3 yards per with four touchdowns and five interceptions.

In addition to Brady’s unexpected regression, Todd Gurley’s late-season surge caused the MVP favorites futures to dip from -500 to -300 over the past week.

After years of Seattle dominance atop the NFC West, the Rams dethroned Pete Carroll’s crew and Gurley’s consistent production played a pivotal role in their rise through the standings and the guarantee of a home playoff game.

 

Gurley MVP Odds Have Been Rising

Gurley averaged 121.6 total yards per game with 11 touchdowns through the first 10 games of the season. However, the reason his MVP futures rose from +500 to +200 ahead of Week 17’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers was due to the production over the past five games.

Gurley’s total yards per game average soared to 175.4 and he scored eight of his 19 touchdowns in just the past five contests. To put it another way, Gurley produced 42% of his yardage and touchdowns totals in just the past five games. Two weeks ago, Gurley wasn’t even on the odds board featuring the league’s top nine MVP favorites.

However, with little to play for against the 49ers, Rams head coach Sean McVay did go on record suggesting starters – including Gurley – will sit out the Week 17 finale. With no stats to produce and Brady needing a win to stave off Pittsburgh atop the AFC standings, Gurley may wind up a little bit short in the MVP race.

 

*Odds as of December 28, 2017

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