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Props for Brady’s Belated Season Debut

The New England Patriots play the Texans on Sunday Night Football

Tom Brady was barred from all New England Patriots team activities during his Deflategate suspension, so how he will fare statistically in his season debut has been the focus of intense speculation.

The Patriots, who went 3-1 while Brady was banished, visit the 0-4 Cleveland Browns on Sunday. They were shut out at home by the Buffalo Bills in Week 4 with third-string QB Jacoby Brissett at the controls, but overall New England is fifth in the NFL in quarterback rating in spite of having no Brady and almost no output from TE Rob Gronkowski.

The Browns are 20th in the NFL in opponents’ QB rating and have allowed 10 touchdown passes through four games, third-most in the league.

The over/under on Brady’s passing yards is 285.5, with either prop offering a -120 payout. In his six games against the Browns, Brady has averaged 256.8 yards. The Patriots have only needed a big day from him once against Cleveland – a 418-yard day during a one-point win in 2013. Brady’s second-highest total against Cleveland is 265.

The over/under on Brady’s touchdown pass total is 2.5, with under listed at -150 and over at +110. Brady has eight TD passes in six career games against the Browns. A healthy Gronkowski would pose a problem for the Browns, who allowed nine receptions to Washington Redskins TE Jordan Cameron during their Week 4 loss.

The over/under of 0.5 interceptions also pays -120 for either prop. Brady has only been picked off twice in six games against Cleveland. The Patriots have also yet to throw an interception in 114 attempts with their backup QBs.


Brady, Patriots Big Week 5 Favorites

The Patriots are an 11-point favorite against the Browns for Sunday. The total is set at 46.5.

New England is 8-20 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite of 11 points or more. Cleveland has one of the NFL’s least efficient rush defenses, and RB LeGarrette Blount could be line for a big day. If that happens, it could reduce Brady’s need to pass.

The Browns are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog, and 0-9 straight-up in their last nine games against teams with winning records.

Cleveland is strong in the rushing phase with RB Isaiah Crowell running mostly behind LT Joe Thomas. Rookie QB Cody Kessler going against a Matt Patricia-coordinated Patriots defense seems like a shaky proposition for Cleveland, especially with the way OLB Jamie Collins conceals his coverage. New England will surely emphasis takeaways after having zero against Buffalo.


*Odds as of October 7, 2016

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