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Patriots Steady Favorites on Super Bowl Odds

Up to date Super Bowl 53 Odds at Bovada

With the opening kickoff of Super Bowl LIII quickly approaching the point spread in Sunday’s contest continues to hold steady after some early line movement, with the New England Patriots pegged as 3-point favorites on the Super Bowl odds.

In the hours following victories by New England and Los Angeles in their respective conference championship games the Rams emerged as a narrow opening favorite at Vegas sportsbooks to claim their first Super Bowl title since their 23-16 win over Tennessee in Super Bowl XXIV 19 years ago,

However, the pendulum quickly swung in New England’s favor, with most Vegas oddsmakers now listing the Patriots as favorites of 2.5 or 3.0 points. While time remains for betting sharps to move the line with big-money wagers, barring a major injury the point spread is likely to remain largely unchanged in the final hours prior to Sunday’s matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Both teams in this year’s big game have benefited from the lengthy two-week layoff leading up to Super Sunday. Neither team is faced with major injuries, however Patriots linebacker Dont’a Hightower is considered questionable after missing practice on Thursday due to an unspecified illness.

In addition, Rams kicker Greg Zuerlein remains limited after suffering a foot injury in the team’s controversial 26-23 win over New Orleans as 3-point road underdogs two weeks ago.

Super Bowl Lines See Game Total Sliding

But while the point spread has stabilized this week, the point total in Sunday’s contest continues to slide since opening at a lofty 58.0 on some Super Bowl lines.

Los Angeles emerged as one of the top offensive teams in the NFL this season, finishing second to the Kansas City Chiefs at 32.9 points scored per game. The Patriots lagged behind the Rams and Chiefs on offensive output during the regular season, but have since rediscovered their offensive touch, averaging 35 points per game during a four-game straight-up win streak that includes their two playoff victories.

However, the total is now at 56.5, and as low as 55.5 at some Vegas sportsbooks, indicating that bettors expect Sunday’s game to be a low-scoring contest. There is plenty of evidence to justify that slide on the Super Bowl betting lines. The point total has topped 53 just once in the Rams’ past seven contests, and with the lower-scoring Patriots quickly emerging as favorites on the moneyline and point spread, a dip in the point total is in line with historical trends.

Past matchups between these two squads have also tended to be low-scoring affairs. New England has emerged victorious in their past five head-to-head meetings, with the Rams averaging just 14.4 points per game during that stretch, and the point total topping 57.0 on just one occasion.

In addition, the Rams have reached 30 points just once in eight playoff games since 2002. However average total points scored in New England’s past three Super Bowl appearances sits at 62.7, generating a 3-0 run for the OVER in totals betting.

*Odds as of January 29, 2019

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